Friday, November 27, 2015

October sales in festive mode: PVs up 21%, M&CVs 23%, LCVs 6.83%, 2W 13%

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The festive season has seen a heartening swing towards an upsurge in sales of passenger cars and scooters during the month of October 2015 with a growth of 21.80 percent and 36.80 percent respectively witnessed by the two segments with passenger vehicles growing at an overall 21.46 percent growth rate according to the latest SIAM data for the month.
The last couple of months have seen a recovery as per the industry sales numbers and SIAM is optimistic of the industry ending this financial year with a high single digit growth.
Sugato Sen, deputy director general of SIAM, who had earlier told Autocar Professional that the PV segment was likely to end with a growth ranging between 6-8 percent, is bullish that it could end between 8-10 percent seeing the return of positive market sentiments and decline in interest rates and fuel prices.
Between April-October, the overall auto industry grew 2.46 percent while PVs grew 8.51 percent with cars seeing a rise of 11.52 percent, utility vehicles flat at 0.94 percent and vans growing marginally at 1.38 percent.
Commercial vehicles, which are driven by commercial demand with purchases not affected by the festive season, rose 12.73 percent with M&HCVs up 23.97 percent. Vishnu Mathur, director general of SIAM, says that since last month even LCVs are showing an improvement and have turned positive in October at a growth of 6.83 percent after 29 months of declining fortunes. This is an indicator that the economy is showing an improvement and sales are starting to pick up. In the rural markets, motorcycle sales are still to pick up. CVs being dependent on investment cycles and movement of goods are showing a growth due to infrastructure development projects, while LCV sales fared better in October due to replacement demand by small time operators. Operators are making purchases after almost two years to replace old and ageing vehicles.
However, three-wheelers continued their decline at 8.47 percent during April-October with motorcycles de-growing at 2.57 percent and mopeds at 5.26 percent. Overall, the two-wheeler segment posted a marginal growth of 1.72 percent on the back of new scooter launches.
Exports grew 5.78 percent during this period with PVs rising 6.34 percent, CVs growing 17.95 percent with M&HCVs up 12.60 percent and LCVs growing at a higher 20.90 percent.
Three-wheelers saw an uptick of 18.59 percent while two-wheelers rose 3.22 percent.
During October, the auto industry grew 13.91 percent with PVs up 21.46 percent and CVs saw an uptick of 12.73 percent with M&HCVs growing 23.97 percent and LCVs 6.83 percent; three-wheelers showed a marginal improvement of 0.10 percent and two-wheelers grew 13.31 percent.
However, exports de-grew 5.56 percent with the highest decline registered by PVs at 21.83 percent, followed by the M&HCV segment at 15.54 percent, two-wheelers at 11.73 percent, three-wheelers at 8.85 percent. LCV exports however grew at 5.71 percent.
The industry body maintains that the recent election results in Bihar will not impact the growth of the auto industry as the current growth momentum that is being experienced by the industry is despite any major reforms having taken place in the country. Being a state election it will not impact central government policies.
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India among 5 fastest-growing markets with 275 million new air passengers

India’s airlines are expected to post a lower combined loss of $550-550 million in the year to 31 March, down from the June estimates of $680-750 million, according to consulting firm Capa India in its India outlook report released in October. Photo: Bloomberg
India’s airlines are expected to post a lower combined loss of $550-550 million in the year to 31 March, down from the June estimates of $680-750 million, according to consulting firm Capa India in its India outlook report released in October. Photo: Bloomberg
Mumbai: India is among the five fastest-growing aviation markets globally with 275 million new passengers and will displace the UK as the third largest in 2026.
India has bounced back from a subdued 2014, and is seeing a strong increase in domestic frequencies, according to International Air Transport Association (IATA), a lobby group that represents nearly 260 airlines, comprising 83% of global air traffic.
“The five fastest-increasing markets in terms of additional passengers per year over the forecast period will be China (758 million new passengers for a total of 1.196 billion), the US (523 million for a total of 1.156 billion), India (275 million for a total of 378 million), Indonesia (132 million for a total of 219 million) and Brazil (104 million for a total of 202 million),” IATA data showed on Thursday.
In terms of routes, Asian, South American and African destinations will see the fastest growth, reflecting economic and demographic growth in those markets, IATA said.
“Indonesia-East Timor will be the fastest growing route, at 13.9%, followed by India-Hong Kong (10.4%), within Honduras (10.3%), within Pakistan (9.9%) and United Arab Emirates-Ethiopia (9.5%),” it said.
Globally, China is expected to overtake the US as the world’s largest passenger market (defined by traffic to, from and within) by 2026. It will account for some 1.19 billion passengers, 758 million more than 2014 with an average annual growth rate of 5.2%.
India will displace the UK as the third-largest market in 2026, with Indonesia rising to number five in the world, IATA noted as one of the key trends in the 10 largest air passenger markets.
“The demand for air transport continues to grow. There is much work to be done to prepare for the 7 billion passengers expected to take the skies in 2034,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s director general and chief executive officer.
Incidentally, passengers carried by Indian airlines during January-October 2015 touched 66.06 million, against 55.06 million during the corresponding period the previous year, registering a growth of 19.96%, according to data from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation.
India’s airlines are expected to post a lower combined loss of $550-550 million in the year to 31 March, down from the June estimates of $680-750 million, according to consulting firm Capa India in its India outlook report released in October.
To cash in on the momentum in passenger demand, IndiGo, India’s largest domestic airline by passengers, confirmed an order to buy as many as 250 Airbus A320neo single-aisle jetliners last month. At the listed price, the order is worth $26.5 billion.
IndiGo has confirmed that robust passenger demand was one of factors that led to the confirmation.
In 2005, IndiGo placed an order for 100 A320s, all of which have been delivered.
Jet Airways (India) Ltd on 10 November said it will buy 75 fuel-efficient Boeing 737 MAX aircraft at a list price of $8 billion from Boeing Co., as India’s second-largest airline races to catch up with rivals who have previously ordered similar planes.
This is the single-largest aircraft order yet from Jet, which will start taking delivery of the planes from mid-2018.
Another listed airline, SpiceJet Ltd, is also considering placing a large aircraft order to capitalise on the boom in passenger growth.



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Automobile Industry in India

Introduction

The Indian auto industry is one of the largest in the world with an annual production of 23.37 million vehicles in FY 2014-15, following a growth of 8.68 per cent over the last year.
The automobile industry accounts for 7.1 per cent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP).
The Two Wheelers segment with 81 per cent market share is the leader of the Indian Automobile market owing to a growing middle class and a young population. Moreover, the growing interest of the companies in exploring the rural markets further aided the growth of the sector. The overall Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment has 13 per cent market share.
India is also a prominent auto exporter and has strong export growth expectations for the near future. In FY 2014-15, automobile exports grew by 15 per cent over the last year. In addition, several initiatives by the Government of India and the major automobile players in the Indian market are expected to make India a leader in the Two Wheeler (2W) and Four Wheeler (4W) market in the world by 2020.

Market Size

The industry produced a total 14.25 million vehicles including PVs, commercial vehicles (CVs), three wheelers (3W) and 2W in April-October 2015 as against 13.83 in April-October 2014, registering a marginal growth of 3.07 per cent year-on-year.
The sales of PVs grew by 8.51 per cent in April-October 2015 over the same period last year. The overall CVs segment registered a growth of 8.02 per cent in April-October 2015 as compared to same period last year. Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles (M&HCVs) registered very strong growth of 32.3 per cent while sales of Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) reduced by 5.24 per cent during April-October 2015 year-on-year.
In April-October 2015, overall automobile exports grew by 5.78 per cent. PVs, CVs, 3Ws and 2Ws registered growth of 6.34 per cent, 17.95 per cent, 18.59 per cent and 3.22 per cent respectively in April-October 2015 over April- October 2014.

Investments

In order to keep up with the growing demand, several auto makers have started investing heavily in various segments of the industry during the last few months. The industry has attracted foreign direct investment (FDI) worth US$ 13.48 billion during the period April 2000 to June 2015, according to data released by Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP).
Some of the major investments and developments in the automobile sector in India are as follows:
  • Global auto major Ford plans to manufacture in India two families of engines by 2017, a 2.2 litre diesel engine codenamed Panther, and a 1.2 litre petrol engine codenamed Dragon, which are expected to power 270,000 Ford vehicles globally.
  • The world’s largest air bag suppliers Autoliv Inc, Takata Corp, TRW Automotive Inc and Toyoda Gosei Co are setting up plants and increasing capacity in India.
  • General Motors plans to invest US$ 1 billion in India by 2020, mainly to increase the capacity at the Talegaon plant in Maharashtra from 130,000 units a year to 220,000 by 2025.
  • US-based car maker Chrysler has planned to invest Rs 3,500 crore (US$ 525 million) in Maharashtra, to manufacture Jeep Grand Cherokee model.
  • Mercedes Benz has decided to manufacture the GLA entry SUV in India. The company has doubled its India assembly capacity to 20,000 units per annum.
  • Germany-based luxury car maker Bayerische Motoren Werke AG’s (BMW) local unit has announced to procure components from seven India-based auto parts makers.
  • Mahindra Two Wheelers Limited (MTWL) acquired 51 per cent shares in France-based Peugeot Motorcycles (PMTC).

Government Initiatives

The Government of India encourages foreign investment in the automobile sector and allows 100 per cent FDI under the automatic route.
Some of the major initiatives taken by the Government of India are:
  • Government of India aims to make automobiles manufacturing the main driver of ‘Make in India’ initiative, as it expects passenger vehicles market to triple to 9.4 million units by 2026, as highlighted in the Auto Mission Plan (AMP) 2016-26.
  • In the Union budget of 2015-16, the Government has announced to provide credit of Rs 850,000 crore (US$ 127.5 billion) to farmers, which is expected to boost the tractors segment sales.
  • The Government plans to promote eco-friendly cars in the country i.e. CNG based vehicle, hybrid vehicle, and electric vehicle and also made mandatory of 5 per cent ethanol blending in petrol.
  • The government has formulated a Scheme for Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in India, under the National Electric Mobility Mission 2020 to encourage the progressive induction of reliable, affordable and efficient electric and hybrid vehicles in the country.
  • The Automobile Mission Plan (AMP) for the period 2006–2016, designed by the government is aimed at accelerating and sustaining growth in this sector. Also, the well-established Regulatory Framework under the Ministry of Shipping, Road Transport and Highways, plays a part in providing a boost to this sector.

Road Ahead

India’s automotive industry is one of the most competitive in the world. It does not cover 100 per cent of technology or components required to make a car but it is giving a good 97 per cent, as highlighted by Mr Vicent Cobee, Corporate Vice-President, Nissan Motor’s Datsun.
Leading auto maker Maruti Suzuki expects Indian passenger car market to reach four million units by 2020, up from 1.97 million units in 2014-15.
The Indian automotive sector has the potential to generate up to US$ 300 billion in annual revenue by 2026, create 65 million additional jobs and contribute over 12 per cent to India’s Gross Domestic Product, as per the Automotive Mission Plan 2016-26 prepared jointly by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) and government.
Exchange Rate Used: INR 1 = US$ 0.0151 as on November 15, 2015


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