Thursday, October 30, 2014

Mixed Views On Auto Sector's Run In 2nd Half 2014

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 20 (Bernama) -- There are mixed views on how the automotive sector would perform in the second half of 2014.

Maybank Investment Bank Research said the sector is expected to pick up speed for the period, driven by major launches, which would spur buying interest.

It said the soon-to-be launched Perodua Axia,the Proton GSC, B-segment Mazda2 and C-segment Mazda3, coupled with a seasonally stronger second half, would result in an upside for the 2014 total industry volume forecast of 675,000.

"We note that the auto players are now focused on the more economical cars in view of the rising cost of living and implementation of the Goods and Services Tax in April next year," it said in a research note Wednesday.

The investment bank noted though, that the recent hike in the overnight policy rate by 25 basis points could negatively pressure vehicles sales, especially the A-segment market in the second half.

Despite the positive catalysts mentioned earlier, Kenanga Research however, sees the sales momentum for the industry slowing down in the second half due to the high base in the same period last year and slower consumer spending amid the rising cost of living.

"On the earnings side, with ongoing stiff competition and an unfavourable exchange rate, we reckon the earnings growth for our tracked automotive companies this year could be kept in check," it said in a different note.

On the sales breakdown, the research house believes that the non-national segment would continue to gain traction, on the assumption of more completely knocked down Energy Efficient Vehicles (EEV) being introduced.


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Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Processed food a big, fat problem for Asia

Obesity, once mainly the scourge of the West, is spreading its tentacles into Asia, threatening health systems and economic growth.
One of the world's leading experts in the field, Eric Finkelstein, says obesity -- with all its associated health problems such as diabetes, high blood pressure and heart disease -- is a major problem "that is only going to get worse".
The research professor of global health at Duke-National University of Singapore says Asia's growing obesity problem is due largely to Westernization.
Western fast foods and processed foods have taken hold in many parts of Asia, replacing traditional foods.
Finkelstein says that while some countries in Asia have implemented programs to try and curb the growth in obesity, "the reality is that it is very difficult for governments to combat obesity … there are just too few policy levers".
As to the impact on health systems and the economy, he says it is hard to quantify.
"We know from US data that obesity is responsible for 9 percent of healthcare expenditures," he says.
"This is much lower in Asia as the prevalence remains lower, but costs continue to creep up. Obese individuals also have higher rates of absenteeism, so there are additional costs to employers."
The Obesity Prevention Source at the Harvard School of Public Health says in a recent report that treating obesity and obesity-related conditions costs billions of dollars a year.
A study conducted by Cornell University in 2012 says the United States, which has the worst rate of obesity in the world, spent $190 billion a year on obesity-related healthcare expenses.
"The enormity of this economic burden and the huge toll that excess weight takes on health and well-being are beginning to raise global political awareness that individuals, communities, states, nations and international organizations must do more to stem the rising tide of obesity," the report said.
A study by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation said 46 million Chinese adults were obese and 300 million were overweight.
Although China does have a problem, it is still way behind the US, which accounts for 13 percent of the world's obesity. China and India together represent 15 percent.
The Congress of the Asian Pacific Society of Cardiology was told last year that overeating, sedentary lifestyles, cultural attitudes and lack of prevention programs are to blame for the rise in obesity in Asia Pacific.
"In many of the countries in Asia Pacific, the malnutrition problem nowadays is not under-nutrition, it is over-nutrition, which has resulted in overweight and obesity," cardiologist Sim Kui Hian says.
The prevalence of obesity in men ranged from 0.3 percent in India and 1.3 percent in Indonesia to 13.8 percent in Mongolia and 19.3 percent in Australia.
In women, the lowest rates were found in India (0.6 percent), China and Japan (both 3.4 percent), with the highest rates in Australia (22.2 percent) and Mongolia (24.6 percent).
"Asia Pacific has developed rapidly, and technological advances mean that children now spend too much time on the Internet and mobile devices so they don't take up much physical activity," says Sim.
"The Asian culture revolves around food as a way of showing hospitality because in the past there was a lot of famine. As a result, there is a cultural perception that if you're not fat or obese then you are not well-off," he said.
Researchers say obesity in Asia can be tracked along with the region's economic growth over the last 30 years.
Western fast food and processed foods are rapidly taking over traditional fresh foods in many countries, especially in middle-class households.
Rob Moodie, professor of public health at the Melbourne School of Population Health, University of Melbourne, says that as Asian people become more affluent, their "lifestyle and eating patterns change with them".
"Fast food and processed foods take over from fresh produce bought at the local market and prepared at home," he tells China Daily Asia Weekly, noting that food has become something of convenience.
"What we see in Asia today is good nutritional food being replaced by food rich in fats, sugar and oils.
"Wander around regional airports, railway stations and office blocks, and you will find vending machines full of sugar-rich drinks, while Western fast-food companies have already begun marching across the region."
The problem, however, is not confined to the middle classes. The poor are targets, too, Moodie says.
"You only have to look at the poor in a developed country like Australia to see the trend. For them, fast food is convenient and above all cheaper than a good nutritional meal and you don't need to prepare it. It is a quick and cheap way of relieving hunger."
Mark Wahlqvist, emeritus professor of medicine at Monash University, says: "I think the emphasis should be on the fact that it (obesity) is growing in Asia."
Speaking to China Daily, he says that "in time, obesity will be a major burden on healthcare systems" in the region, but as yet there is little data available.
This is confirmed by the World Health Organization's spokesman for the Western Pacific region, Christian Lindmeier, who says: "Specific data on the impact of obesity on health services do not exist for our region."
He explains that the costs to healthcare systems from all non-communicable diseases are already high, and projected to rise in the future.
"The increasing burden of NCDs-such as diabetes and heart disease-imposes severe economic consequences that range from impoverishment of families to high health system costs and the weakening of country economies.
"The NCD epidemic is thwarting poverty reduction efforts and robbing societies of funds that could otherwise be devoted to social and economic development," Lindmeier says.
Research at the Duke Global Health Institute and Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School in Singapore estimated childhood obesity costs around $19,000 per child when comparing lifetime medical costs to those of a normal weight child.
When multiplied by the number of obese 10-year-olds in the US, lifetime medical costs for this age alone reach roughly $14 billion.
An alternative estimate, which takes into account the possibility of normal-weight children gaining weight in adulthood, reduces the cost to $12,900 per obese child. The findings appear in the journal Pediatrics.
"Reducing childhood obesity is a public health priority that has substantial health and economic benefits," says Finkelstein from Duke-National University, who is lead author of the report.
"These estimates provide the financial consequences of inaction and the potential medical savings from obesity prevention efforts that successfully reduce or delay obesity onset."
Obesity is a known risk factor for a wide range of diseases, including cardiovascular disease, Type 2 diabetes and certain cancers. Roughly one in three adults and one in five children in the US are obese, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
"Public health interventions should be prioritized on their ability to improve health at a reasonable cost," Finkelstein says.
"In order to understand the cost implications of obesity prevention efforts, it is necessary to accurately quantify the burden of childhood obesity if left untreated."
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Monday, October 27, 2014

Oral cancer claims one life every six hours in India

Kolkata: One person dies every six hours due to oral cancer in the country, signalling an alarming rise in the incidence of the disease, according to a top orthodontist. The situation could be still graver as many cases of the disease went unreported, Secretary-General of the Indian Dental Association Dr. Ashok Dhoble said.
"Cases of the disease and deaths resulting from it in rural areas and among the poorer sections of society are hardly registered," he noted. He pointed out that with the high prevalence of smokers and widespread use of other chewable tobacco products, India has seen a steep growth in the number of oral cancer patients in the past decade.
In fact, Dr Dhoble said, oral cancer approximated to 40 per cent of all cancer-related disease in the country with the Northeastern states mostly affected. "All Northeastern states are badly affected by the disease. The states like West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu are also affected," he said, adding every third person in these states used tobacco-related products.
Oral cancer claims one life every six hours in India

Secretary-General of IDA Dr. Ashok Dhoble said that the situation could be still graver as many cases of the disease went unreported.

Talking about measures to curb the prevalence of the deadly disease, he said that nothing short of a total ban on the use of tobacco was the only way.
"There is no other way to curb oral cancer... You have to ban tobacco in its every form," Dr Dhoble said, pointing out that it was the nicotine present in the tobacco which made it addictive and difficult to kick the habit. "Our government also understands the problem... But the huge number of people employed with the tobacco industry is the problem... The government has to provide them with an alternative livelihood and then ban tobacco totally," he said.
He said that a dentist was the first person to diagnose it since oral cancer was not just limited to teeth, but mouth, tongue and integral part of pharynx and gums as well. The orthodontist explained that oral cancer was 100 per cent curable only if it was reported in the first stage. But once it slips into the second stage, the patient is left with a life span of just five years.
"I will advise people to visit a dentist and not to ignore even if there is a slight problem in the mouth... But above all they have to give up using tobacco in every form. That's the best medicine," Dr Dhoble said Stressing the need to educate people on the disease, he said that the Indian Dental Association, which will hold the FDI Annual World Dental Congress in Delhi in September, had been conducting awareness camps and counselling people for the last five years.
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5 Things to know about India's Healthcare System


Image: Shutterstock
Now that the 2014 general elections are in the rear view mirror, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ministers face the challenge of expectations set by the media and all his supporters. One of the key challenges his team will be facing is: Healthcare.
With the World Health Organization’s 2000 World Health Report ranking India’s healthcare system at 112 out of 190 countries [1], some key questions in his mind should be: How should the country transform its healthcare system? What are its current pain points? What could be achieved during his tenure?
For those living in urban areas, healthcare is merely a political issue. They argue that the country faces bigger challenges such as economic development, infrastructure, jobs, and border disputes with Pakistan. I believe that the 2014 elections have presented India with a unique opportunity to take a fresh look at its healthcare landscape. I was happy to browse through the PM’s campaign website which had a section on his achievements in this sector.
But here are 5 things you should know about India’s healthcare system.
1. Rural Versus Urban Divide: While the opportunity to enter the market is very ripe, India still spends only around 4.2% of its national GDP towards healthcare goods and services (compared to 18% by the US) [2]. Additionally, there are wide gaps between the rural and urban populations in its healthcare system which worsen the problem. A staggering 70% of the population still lives in rural areas and has no or limited access to hospitals and clinics [3]. Consequently, the rural population mostly relies on alternative medicine and government programmes in rural health clinics. One such government programme is the National Urban Health Mission which pays individuals for healthcare premiums, in partnership with various local private partners, which have proven ineffective to date.
In contrast, the urban centres have numerous private hospitals and clinics which provide quality healthcare. These centres have better doctors, access to preventive medicine, and quality clinics which are a result of better profitability for investors compared to the not-so-profitable rural areas.
2. Need for Effective Payment Mechanisms: Besides the rural-urban divide, another key driver of India’s healthcare landscape is the high out-of-pocket expenditure (roughly 70%). This means that most Indian patients pay for their hospital visits and doctors’ appointments with straight up cash after care with no payment arrangements.  According to the World Bank and National Commission’s report on Macroeconomics, only 5% of Indians are covered by health insurance policies [3]. Such a low figure has resulted in a nascent health insurance market which is only available for the urban, middle and high income populations. The good news is that the penetration of the health insurance market has been increasing over the years; it has been one of the fastest-growing segments of business in India.
Coming to the regulatory side, the Indian government plays an important role in running several safety net health insurance programmes for the high-risk population and actively regulates the private insurance markets. Currently there are a handful of such programmes including the Community Health Insurance programme for the population below poverty line (like Medicaid in the US) and Life Insurance Company (LIC) policy for senior citizens (like Medicare in the US). All these plans are monitored and controlled by the government-run General Insurance Corporation, which is designed for people to pay upfront cash and then get reimbursed by filing a claim. There are additional plans offered to government employees, and a handful of private companies sell private health insurance to the public [3].
3. Demand for Basic Primary Healthcare and Infrastructure: India faces a growing need to fix its basic health concerns in the areas of HIV, malaria, tuberculosis, and diarrhoea. Additionally, children under five are born underweight and roughly 7% (compared to 0.8% in the US) of them die before their fifth birthday. [4] [5]. Sadly, only a small percentage of the population has access to quality sanitation, which further exacerbates some key concerns above.
For primary healthcare, the Indian government spends only about 30% of the country’s total healthcare budget [6]. This is just a fraction of what the US and the UK spend every year. One way to solve this problem is to address the infrastructure issue… by standardising diagnostic procedures, building rural clinics, and developing streamlined health IT systems, and improving efficiency. The need for skilled medical graduates continues to grow, especially in rural areas which fail to attract new graduates because of financial reasons. A sizeable percentage of the graduates also go abroad to pursue higher studies and employment.
4. Growing Pharmaceutical Sector: According to the Indian Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF), India is the third-largest exporter of pharmaceutical products in terms of volume. Around 80% of the market is composed of generic low-cost drugs which seem to be the major driver of this industry [7].
The increase in the ageing population, rising incomes of the middle class, and the development of primary care facilities are expected to shape the pharmaceutical industry in future. The government has already taken some liberal measures by allowing foreign direct investment in this area which has been a key driving force behind the growth of Indian pharma.
5. Underdeveloped Medical Devices Sector: The medical devices sector is the smallest piece of India’s healthcare pie. However, it is one of the fastest-growing sectors in the country like the health insurance marketplace. Till date, the industry has faced a number of regulatory challenges which has prevented its growth and development.
Recently, the government has been positive on clearing regulatory hurdles related to the import-export of medical devices, and has set a few standards around clinical trials. According to The Economic Times, the medical devices sector is seen as the most promising area for future development by foreign and regional investors; they are highly profitable and always in demand in other countries.

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Sunday, October 26, 2014

Indians Eat, Live and Drink Mobile Apps

The number of app downloads in India is expected to grow from 1.56 billion per annum in 2012 to 9 billion by 2015, says a new study.
apps
The number of app downloads in India is expected to grow from 1.56 billion per annum in 2012 to 9 billion by 2015, says a new study.
The joint-study by the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (Assocham) and Deloitte said it will be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 75 percent, the chamber said Tuesday announcing the results of the study.
The study revealed that most of the apps are downloaded by people in the age group of 16 and 30 years.
The joint study -- Digitisation and Mobility -- said the paradigm shift was brought by social media campaign during the 2014 Lok Sabha election, where 29 million people made 227 million interactions on Facebook.
It said about 60 million tweets were posted from the day the polls were announced to the day balloting ended.
A variety of mobile apps are available in app stores: Apple's devices are equipped with iMessage, BlackBerry devices with BlackBerry Messenger (BBM) and Windows Phone devices with a Windows Live client.
Android devices have a range of messenger apps options, including WhatsApp and SnapChat.
"Mobile TV registered a 400 percent growth rate in viewership for the country's largest telecom companies as more Indians watched TV on the go. YouTube, the most popular video app is accessed by 35 percent of smartphone users who spend almost 1.5 hours a month on it," Assocham secretary general D.S. Rawat said.
The share of video in internet data traffic is expected to rise from 41 percent in 2011-12 to 64 percent in 2016-17.
The growing adoption of mobility devices is prompting pay-TV and internet TV providers to offer a wider choice of content via smartphones, tablets and phablets.
However, the study said India being a price sensitive society, people are still reluctant to pay for mobile games and downloading large file-sized games or apps despite cheap gaming rates and mobile internet plans.
Monetisation is thus a big issue for both the local and global mobile game developers entering the Indian market.
IANS
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Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Steady growth seen for Philippine health care services industry

THE HEALTHCARE Information Management Outsourcing Association of the Philippines (HIMOAP) expects domestic health care information management services to hit $2.4 billion in revenues by 2016, as the country poses to become one of the global leaders in the industry.

HIMOAP President Josefina V. Lauchangco said that they are projecting steady growth, with revenues of $2.4 billion and employment of about 120,000 workers in the industry by 2016.
“There are a lot of opportunities in global health care, with the Philippines having a sizable talent pool of (around) 250,000 nursing graduates,” she told reporters after an industry conference yesterday.
“This will drive the growth and attract a lot of investors and companies to come here to the Philippines,” she added.
Ms. Lauchangco said that given that this kind of work force is unique to the Philippines, the country could become the global leader in the health care services industry provided that there is adequate training.
“What we need is to enable this talent, create programs that would provide them with the necessary skills,” she said.
“The training programs that we have are very limited to jobs like medical coding, medical transcription. We have to expand this to other services, like for example health care information technology and data analytics,” the official added.
Last year, the industry recorded $988.43 million in revenues, with more than 66,000 medical professionals employed.
David McKeering, public sector and health care leader at PricewaterhousCoopers Southeast Asia Consulting, said that the developing economy of the Philippines puts the country at an advantage in providing a globally competitive health care information system.
“The Philippines right now, with the way you’ve been able to show how successful you can be with other industries with BPO (business process outsourcing) and other areas, health care is the industry where you could play the mark of the world leader,” Mr. McKeering said. — BBMB


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Monday, October 20, 2014

China's Future Gold Demand To Go Viral : Industry body

The US$ price of gold has soared +377% from 2001 to date. That’s a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) equal to 13.4%. Contrast gold’s monumental appreciation with the pathetic performance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and the miserly return of US Treasuries.  


Gold’s CAGR in US$ and Yuan (Renminbi)
Since 200 the US$ price of gold has enjoyed a 13.4% CAGR.
Since 200 the Yuan (Renminbi) price of gold sports a 10.6% CAGR.
China’s money supply shows a 18.1% CAGR since 2001…one of world’s highest

China’s Future Gold Demand To Go Viral

“A major report published recently by the World Gold Council, “China's Gold Market: Progress And Prospects” suggests that private sector demand for gold in China is set to increase from the current level of 1,132 tonnes per year to at least 1,350 tonnes by 2017. Following the record level of Chinese demand in 2013, which saw the country become the world’s largest gold market, the report suggests that while 2014 is likely to see consolidation, the succeeding years are likely to see sustained growth.
The report examines the factors that have driven China’s rise to become the number one producer and consumer of gold since the market began liberalising in the late 1990s. It also highlights why despite this steep growth in demand, the market will continue to expand, irrespective of short term blips in the economy.
The next six years will see China’s middle class grow by over 60%, or 200m people, to a total of 500 million. Comparing this to the total population of the US, which stands at 319m, puts the size of this new market of affluent consumers, with the propensity to buy gold, in perspective.
In addition to these newly emerging middle classes, rising real incomes, a deepening pool of private savings and rapid urbanisation across China suggest that the outlook for gold jewellery and investment demand in the next four years will remain strong.
Albert Cheng, Managing Director of the Far East at the World Gold Council said:
“Since liberalisation of the gold market began in the late 1990s and the subsequent offering of gold bullion products by local commercial banks from 2004, we have witnessed astonishing increases in demand for gold from consumers across the country. The cultural affinity for gold runs deep in China and when this is combined with an increasingly affluent population and a supportive government, there is significant room for the market to grow even further. The country is now at the centre of the global gold eco-system.”
“Whilst China faces important challenges as it seeks to sustain economic growth and liberalise its financial system, growth in personal incomes and the public’s pool of savings should support a medium term increase in the demand for gold, in both jewellery and investment.”
The key findings from the research include the following:
  • China’s continuing urbanisation means that it now has 170 cities with more than one million inhabitants3 - within these cities, the middle classes currently number 300million and are set to grow to 500 million by 2020. Demand for gold amongst those with a greater disposable income and limited investment opportunities will continue to grow.
  • Chinese savings levels remain high - there is an estimated US $7.5 trillion in Chinese bank accounts and household allocations to gold remain small, around $300 billion. Gold is seen as a stable, accessible investment by consumers, particularly in the light of rising house prices and a lack of alternative savings options. Chinese investors have a preference for physical gold over paper, with investment focused on small bars, gift bars or Gold Accumulation Plans (GAPs). New gold investment products mean that medium term demand for bars and coins could reach close to 500tonnes by 2017 – a rise of nearly 25% above its record level last year.
  • China has become the world’s number one jewellery market, nearly trebling in size over the past decade - at 669tonnes in 2013, it accounts for 30% of global jewellery demand. Estimates suggest that demand will continue to grow and reach 780t by 2017. There are now over 100,000 retail outlets selling 24k gold and thousands of manufacturers nationwide.
  • Consumer sentiment toward gold is unwavering - although 40% of jewellery consumption relates to weddings, the appetite for gold in China goes beyond occasions and gift giving. 80% of consumers surveyed for this report planned to maintain or increase their spending on 24-carat gold jewellery over the next 12 months believing that gold will hold its long-term value and because they expect to have a higher level of disposable income.
  • Chinese electronics demand for gold will see small gains in the next four years - industrial demand has grown with electronics being the key driver (climbing from 16 tonnes in 2003 to 66 tonnes in 2013). China is also the leading market for gold related patents such as the use of nanogold in healthcare.
  • Official gold holdings in China totalled 1,054t at the end of 2013 making the country the world’s sixth largest holder of bullion - based on this declared stock, gold represents 1% of China’s total official reserves (down from a peak of almost 2% in 2012) due to the rapid growth of the country’s foreign exchange holdings which reached around US$3.8 trillion at the end of 2013. Speculation continues as to whether the Chinese government has increased its gold holdings.
  • China has gone from being a minor producer to the world’s largest source of mined gold - in the past ten years production has doubled from 217 tonnes to 437 tonnes.
(Courtesy: World Gold Council)
Gold buying frenzy in China
Compelling Reasons Why the Sino Nations’ Citizens Will Increasingly Stampede Into Gold
  • China’s economy is one of the fastest growing in the world.
  • China’s per capita income is increasing apace with the country’s economy.
  • Local alternative investments do NOT compare with enviable returns in gold since 2001.
  • Growth in China’s money supply is the fastest of all major countries.
  • The government of China encourages its citizens to invest in gold.
  • China is today the number one producer and consumer of gold…worldwide.
  • China must diversity its FOREX Risk as it owns more than $1.3 trillion in US Treasuries.
  • National researches observe China covertly desires to eventually have a gold backed renminbi.
  • China’s total foreign reserves have less than 5% gold backing vs 74% of major world counties.
  • China’s exploding population will top 1,400,000,000 in not too distant future…world’s largest.
  • China now has FOUR GOLD ETFs with a total value of more than 1.9 billion yuan.
  • Pervasive communication via the Internet will effectively market gold consumption.
It is the considered opinion of this analyst that China is hell bent for leather to drive the price of gold to new all-time record levels for many years to come.
By I. M. Vronsky 
Editor & Partner - Gold-Eagle 
www.gold-eagle.com
Founder of GOLD-EAGLE in January 1997. Vronsky has over 40 years’ experience in the international investment world, having cut his financial teeth in Wall Street as a Financial Analyst with White Weld.  He believes gold and silver will soon be recognized as legal tender in all 50 US states (Utah and Arizona having already passed laws to that effect). Vronsky speaks three languages with indifference:   English, Spanish and Brazilian Portuguese.  His education includes university degrees in Engineering, Liberal Arts and an MBA in International Business Administration – qualifying as Phi Beta Kappa for high scholastic achievement in all three.
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